Europa League
2015-11-26 - Lazio v Dnipro
Football: European Europa League
Thursday 26th November 2015 - Kick Off 6pm
Lazio
If Lazio avoid a defeat on Thursday, they will ensure they are playing European football in the next calendar year, but even a defeat is unlikely to dent their chances too much. Recent form hasn't been too impressive from Lazio this season after the positive way they ended last season and so they might feel they need to get qualification wrapped up this week just to boost some confidence.
Lazio are currently top of this Group and they have earned 10 points from a possible 12 which leaves them 6 points clear of 3rd placed Dnipro who they host on Thursday. They are looking to sweep all 3 home games in the Group this week and Lazio have won all 3 home games played in European football this season.
The poor run of form that I alluded to has seen Lazio win just 1 of their last 5 games in all competitions and the side had to settle for a 1-1 home draw with Palermo last weekend. That means Lazio have failed to win their last couple of home games having opened the season with 8 consecutive wins at the Stadio Olimpico in all competitions.
Dnipro
Last season was a special one for Dnipro that saw them fall just short in a bid to win the Europa League which would have also presented them a place in the Champions League. This time around it looks like the Ukrainian side will fail to get out of the Group Stage barring two wins in their final two games and things going their way in other games.
It is looking unlikely as Dnipro are in 3rd place and 3 points behind Saint-Etienne with just a couple of games left to play. Even though Dnipro reached the Final of the Europa League last season, they have won just 1 of their last 7 away games in this competition although that came earlier in the Group at Rosenborg.
The side have lost 1 of their last 6 games in all competitions and Dnipro are unbeaten in 3 games having kept clean sheets in each of those games. Dnipro have been beaten in 1 of their last 14 away games in all competitions but they have failed to win any of their last 3 on their travels and anything less than the 3 points in this one is unlikely to be enough to qualify for the Knock Out Round.
Head to Head
Dnipro and Lazio drew 1-1 earlier in the Group but this is the first time they will meet one another in Italy.
Prediction
Neither Lazio nor Dnipro can point to recent form to suggest they are going to win this game, but the home side have the benefit of knowing a draw is good enough for them to get through to the Last 32. Now I am not expecting Lazio to play for the draw as they would like to win the Group too, but it does mean the onus is on Dnipro to find the win here and that means Lazio can pick them off on the counter-attack.
This has been a strong ground for Lazio for the majority of the season and even the two recent poor results here might not have dented their confidence too much.
They have won all 3 home games in European football this season and Lazio are facing a Dnipro team that has struggled on their travels even during their run to the Europa League Final last season. I can see a situation where a desperate Dnipro are perhaps picked off late in this one as they try and stay alive in the Group and I like Lazio to win this game and erase their last couple of performances in front of their own fans.
The Pick :
Lazio 2-2 Dnipro
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